Bond Watch: demand for fixed income soars
Sam Benstead breaks down the latest news affecting bond investors.
4th October 2024 11:21
Welcome to interactive investor’s ‘Bond Watch’ series, covering the latest market and economic news – as well as analysis – that is relevant to bond investors.
Our goal is to make the notoriously complicated world of bond investing simpler, by analysing the week’s most important news and distilling it into a short, useful and accessible article for DIY investors.
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Investors buy bonds in August
Fixed-income funds recorded the highest inflow of 2024, with net retail sales of £1.8 billion, up from £520 million in July, according to data from funds industry trade body the Investment Association (IA).
In particular, the government bond sectors saw the highest sales with inflows of £837 million, followed by the Sterling Strategic Bond sector at £731 million.
The IA says that the return to fixed income may be a response to recent equity market volatility with bonds helping to provide stable returns for investor portfolios.
It adds: “With further interest rate cuts on the horizon, investors may also want to opt for bond funds, because as yields fall on the back of lower interest rates, it will cause bond prices to rise, boosting returns.”
Falling interest rates are not good news for money market funds, whose returns are closely tied to the Bank of England base rate and do not see capital gains when interest rates fall.
The IA found that money market funds saw their first outflows since March, with net withdrawals totalling £316 million in August.
Bank of England could be more ‘aggressive’
In comments made to the Guardian newspaper this week, governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey signalled that he could be more aggressive in cutting interest rates.
He said that the Bank could be “a bit more aggressive” in cutting interest rates provided the news on inflation continued to be good.
This was interpreted by markets as a sign that rates could fall faster than expected. As a result, the pound dropped about 1% against the dollar.
- Will interest rate cuts reduce returns on money market funds?
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There was not a big reaction in bond markets, but if the Bank of England moves faster than expected on rates, such as cutting 0.75 percentage points more this year rather than the expected 0.50 point move, this could send bond markets higher.
Interest rates are currently 5% in the UK. Economists at fund manager abrdn expect the base rate to reach 4.75% by the end 2024, then 3.75% by 2025 and 2.75% by 2026.
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