eyeQ: 10 actionable trading signals for week beginning 3 March 2025
Experts at eyeQ use AI and their own smart machine to generate actionable trading signals. Here, they highlight 10 UK shares and 10 overseas stocks either cheap or expensive given current macro conditions.
3rd March 2025 09:29
Huw Roberts from eyeQ
"Our signals are crafted through macro-valuation, trend analysis, and meticulous back-testing. This combination ensures a comprehensive evaluation of an asset's value, market conditions, and historical performance." eyeQ
- Discover: eyeQ analysis explained | eyeQ: our smart machine in action | Glossary
This series of weekly articles uses eyeQ’s smart machine to highlight 10 stocks whose share price trades at either a discount or premium to eyeQ’s Model Value price (where macro conditions say the share 'should' trade).
A minus figure in these tables indicates a share trading below eyeQ’s Model Value, implying they are ‘cheap’ versus macro conditions. A plus figure screens as rich because the current share price is above eyeQ’s Model Value.
All companies must have a model relevance above 65%, which means the macro environment is critical and any valuation signals carry strong weight.
Here are definitions of terms used in the analysis:
Model value
Where our smart machine calculates that any stock market index, single stock or exchange-traded fund (ETF) should be priced (the fair value) given the overall macroeconomic environment.
Model relevance
How confident we are in the model value. The higher the number the better! Above 65% means the macro environment is critical, so any valuation signals carry strong weight. Below 65%, we deem that something other than macro is driving the price.
Fair Value Gap (FVG)
The difference between our model value (fair value) and where the price currently is. A positive Fair Value Gap means the security is above the model value, which we refer to as “rich”. A negative FVG means that it's cheap. The bigger the FVG, the bigger the dislocation and therefore a better entry level for trades.
Long Term model
This model looks at share prices over the last 12 months, captures the company’s relationship with growth, inflation, currency shifts, central bank policy etc and calculates our key results - model value, model relevance, Fair Value Gap.
UK Top 10
| Company | Macro Relevance | Model Value | Fair Value Gap |
| Capita (LSE:CPI) | 66% | 16.13p | -23.51% |
| Tullow Oil (LSE:TLW) | 69% | 18.56p | -22.54% |
| Taylor Wimpey (LSE:TW.) | 74% | 134.64p | -18.79% |
| Bellway (LSE:BWY) | 72% | 2664.96p | -13.89% |
| Howden Joinery Group (LSE:HWDN) | 80% | 837.16p | -8.30% |
| Johnson Matthey (LSE:JMAT) | 78% | 1395.69p | 2.40% |
| Man Group (LSE:EMG) | 87% | 205.32p | 3.61% |
| Barclays (LSE:BARC) | 75% | 294.50p | 5.40% |
| Wise Class A (LSE:WISE) | 65% | 926.31p | 6.67% |
| Standard Chartered (LSE:STAN) | 65% | 1157.59p | 8.78% |
Source: eyeQ. Long Term strategic models. Data correct as at 2 March 2025.
Howden Joinery
Shares of UK-based kitchen and joinery supplier fell more than 7% last week. Their results were in line with expectations, but CEO Andrew Livingston stated that 2025 will continue to be a challenging year for the kitchen market.
That sell-off means Howden Joinery Group (LSE:HWDN) now sits 8.30% cheap to overall macro conditions - a big enough valuation gap to trigger a bullish signal. A cheap entry level for a stock that should benefit if you believe the UK housing market can bounce from here.
International Top 10
| Company | Macro Relevance | Model Value | Fair Value Gap |
| Wingstop Inc (NASDAQ:WING) | 79% | $286.60 | -22.07% |
| Riot Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:RIOT) | 74% | $11.27 | -21.49% |
| Zillow Group Inc Class A (NASDAQ:ZG) | 75% | $87.66 | -17.83% |
| Lockheed Martin Corp (NYSE:LMT) | 70% | $520.79 | -15.64% |
| Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:GOOG) | 70% | $189.88 | -10.26% |
| The Western Union Co (NYSE:WU) | 87% | $10.29 | 4.95% |
| Airbnb Inc Ordinary Shares - Class A (NASDAQ:ABNB) | 70% | $130.30 | 6.17% |
| The Walt Disney Co (NYSE:DIS) | 71% | $105.66 | 7.15% |
| Domino's Pizza Inc (NASDAQ:DPZ) | 78% | $434.45 | 11.28% |
| Dollar General Corp (NYSE:DG) | 78% | $56.77 | 23.46% |
Source: eyeQ. Long Term strategic models. Data correct as at 2 March 2025.
Wingstop
Wingstop Inc (NASDAQ:WING)’s share price continues to tumble, with the restaurant sector facing multiple headwinds including food price inflation, rising wage costs, weight-loss drugs, Robert F. Kennedy Jr’s health push and more.
There are issues from the macro side too. eyeQ model value slumped by 8.11% in February and is languishing near one-year lows.
The consolation is that the stock now finds itself sitting 22.07% below where model conditions say it “should” trade. For a high conviction bet we’d want to see model value bottom and ideally bounce but, in valuation terms, that’s large enough to trigger a bullish signal.
These third-party research articles are provided by eyeQ (Quant Insight). interactive investor does not make any representation as to the completeness, accuracy or timeliness of the information provided, nor do we accept any liability for any losses, costs, liabilities or expenses that may arise directly or indirectly from your use of, or reliance on, the information (except where we have acted negligently, fraudulently or in wilful default in relation to the production or distribution of the information).
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Equity research is provided for information purposes only. Neither eyeQ (Quant Insight) nor interactive investor have considered your personal circumstances, and the information provided should not be considered a personal recommendation. If you are in any doubt as to the action you should take, please consult an authorised financial adviser.
Disclosure
We use a combination of fundamental and technical analysis in forming our view as to the valuation and prospects of an investment. Where relevant we have set out those particular matters we think are important in the above article, but further detail can be found here.
Please note that our article on this investment should not be considered to be a regular publication.
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