eyeQ: once-a-year chance to buy Greggs shares
Experts at eyeQ have used AI and their own smart machine to analyse macro conditions and generate actionable trading signals. Here’s its view on the bakery chain’s shares.
2nd July 2025 10:38
Huw Roberts from eyeQ
“Our signals are crafted through macro-valuation, trend analysis, and meticulous back-testing. This combination ensures a comprehensive evaluation of an asset's value, market conditions, and historical performance.” eyeQ
- Discover: eyeQ analysis explained | eyeQ: our smart machine in action | Glossary
Greggs
Macro Relevance: 75%
Model Value: 2,172.30p
Fair Value Gap: -26% discount to model value
Data correct as at 2 July 2025. Please click glossary for explanation of terms. Long-term strategic model.
Greggs (LSE:GRG) updated investors this morning and the baker now expect profits to fall this year relative to last. They blamed the hot weather which hurt sales of hot food.
The first thing you see in the chart below is how noisy macro has become this year as Trump's trade wars have impacted. Over 2023-24 macro relevance was high, eyeQ model value was comparatively stable and GRG's share price gyrated around macro conditions.
That all changed in 2025. Macro relevance fell and model value was especially noisy in April around Trump's Liberation Day. That does mean there are caveats around eyeQ's macro outlook.
But, that said, GRG now screens as 26% cheap. Macro conditions are choppy but largely rangebound; so, this morning's 15% sell-off has taken the stock sufficiently below our model to fire a new bullish signal.
These are relatively rare occurrences. GRG has only been in a macro regime and this cheap 15 times since 2009. So crudely it's a once-a-year thing. And of those signals, 67% of them have worked which is a strong hit rate.
So, yes, there are some health warnings, but the macro picture is starting to look interesting for the more tactical investors.
Source: eyeQ. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Useful terminology:
Model value
Where our smart machine calculates that any stock market index, single stock or exchange-traded fund (ETF) should be priced (the fair value) given the overall macroeconomic environment.
Model (macro) relevance
How confident we are in the model value. The higher the number the better! Above 65% means the macro environment is critical, so any valuation signals carry strong weight. Below 65%, we deem that something other than macro is driving the price.
Fair Value Gap (FVG)
The difference between our model value (fair value) and where the price currently is. A positive Fair Value Gap means the security is above the model value, which we refer to as “rich”. A negative FVG means that it's cheap. The bigger the FVG, the bigger the dislocation and therefore a better entry level for trades.
Long Term model
This model looks at share prices over the last 12 months, captures the company’s relationship with growth, inflation, currency shifts, central bank policy etc and calculates our key results - model value, model relevance, Fair Value Gap.
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