eyeQ: a leading US tech stock forming a near-term top?
Experts at eyeQ have used AI and their own smart machine to analyse macro conditions and generate actionable trading signals. This high-flyer may have got ahead of itself.
28th August 2025 11:10
Huw Roberts from eyeQ
“Our signals are crafted through macro-valuation, trend analysis, and meticulous back-testing. This combination ensures a comprehensive evaluation of an asset's value, market conditions, and historical performance.” eyeQ
- Discover: eyeQ analysis explained | eyeQ: our smart machine in action | Glossary
Advanced Micro Devices
Macro Relevance: 67%
Model Value: $136.30
Fair Value Gap: +18.44% premium to model value
Data correct as at 28 August 2025. Please click glossary for explanation of terms. Long-term strategic model.
NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA) released their latest earnings overnight, and despite producing generally good numbers, the stock sold off. There are issues around sales into China where confusion on official US policy creates huge uncertainty, but generally the company remains in rude health.
It “feels” more like disappointment relative to massively inflated expectations - how much longer can it keep producing these amazing sales/revenues numbers?
Long-term players shouldn’t let short-term noise interfere with their core investment thesis. Note that Nvidia has traded flat or lower on three of the last four earnings reports but is still up 40% over that period. Stick to your plan!
However, for the tactically minded who are thinking that the AI hype is vulnerable to a near-term correction, eyeQ’s model for fellow semiconductor stock Advanced Micro Devices Inc (NASDAQ:AMD) is interesting.
Its back in a macro regime for the first time since March and sits almost 20% rich to our $136.30 macro fair value. That’s enough to fire a new bearish signal.
The chart below captures the story. Macro conditions have been improving but the summer rally has extended too far, too fast. And now both eyeQ model value and the spot AMD price itself are showing signs of potentially forming a near-term top.
It may be a tactical move only within a broader bullish picture for chip stocks but, from the macro perspective, the risk/reward is skewed to the downside here.
Source: eyeQ. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Useful terminology:
Model value
Where our smart machine calculates that any stock market index, single stock or exchange-traded fund (ETF) should be priced (the fair value) given the overall macroeconomic environment.
Model (macro) relevance
How confident we are in the model value. The higher the number the better! Above 65% means the macro environment is critical, so any valuation signals carry strong weight. Below 65%, we deem that something other than macro is driving the price.
Fair Value Gap (FVG)
The difference between our model value (fair value) and where the price currently is. A positive Fair Value Gap means the security is above the model value, which we refer to as “rich”. A negative FVG means that it's cheap. The bigger the FVG, the bigger the dislocation and therefore a better entry level for trades.
Long Term model
This model looks at share prices over the last 12 months, captures the company’s relationship with growth, inflation, currency shifts, central bank policy etc and calculates our key results - model value, model relevance, Fair Value Gap.
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